BIG HEADLINES…

1. POLITICS.
   Tesla sends warning letter to Trump. MORE DETAILS

2. PEOPLE.
   GENE HACKMAN will is revealed, gonna be a bloodbath. LEARN MORE

3. WARNING.
   A big volcano in USA ready to erupt, says expert. WHAT TO KNOW

4. LOOKING UGLY.
   A bankruptcy strikes beauty company pushed by Brinkley. MORE ON THIS

5. NEW DEVELOPMENTS
   Report: Iowa boy kissed and tried saving missing US Student. DETAILS HERE

MIDTERMS: MESSAGING & SHOWING UP

Trump’s Midterm Challenge – History’s Lessons and the Economy’s Warning Signs

Let me be clear: President Trump has started off his second term nicely, delivering strong wins on immigration, world policy, ridding us of the woke nonsense that’s been choking our culture, and slashing government fraud. These are real victories, and they show he’s serious about keeping his promises. But here’s the truth: the economy is always the lynchpin, and I have fears that the most important item on the voter’s mind if being somewhat overlooked. So, to my friends in D.C. who read this… share my message!

THE UGLY
The stock market is beyond shaky — the markets have recently lost $5 trillion in value. Both big and small companies are issuing slowdown warnings, layoffs are mounting, consumer confidence is dropping further than expected, and inflation is still putting pressure on American wallets. On top of that, the White House’s messaging around tariffs—sometimes on, sometimes off—risks confusing voters at a time when clarity and strength are needed most.

MIDTERMS
I realize it’s early to think about the midterms by the calendar—we’re still many months away from the serious chatter kicking off next January—but the economy is a slow-moving beast, and right now, it’s headed into a bad place that will be hard to overcome when the midterm fight begins in earnest. History tells us that midterms are a brutal test for the party in power, and with economic headwinds building, I want to see our side fight harder to protect what we’ve gained.

HISTORY
Here’s the problem: once a president wins, the voter base of the winning party often gets complacent. The urgency to show up and vote in the midterms fades, while the opposition—fueled by anger and a sense of revenge—comes out swinging. I’ve seen it happen too many times, and the data backs me up. Since Bill Clinton, the president’s party has lost control of at least one chamber of Congress in the midterms following a presidential election in every single case except one. That’s not a hunch—that’s history. And with economic headwinds building, we need to be proactive, not reactive. Let’s break it down, election by election, look at the hard numbers, and see what role the economy played.

BILL CLINTON.
In 1992, he won the White House, and Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. But by 1994, complacency had set in among Democratic voters, and the GOP, led by Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America,” came roaring back. The result? A bloodbath. Democrats lost 54 House seats and eight Senate seats, handing full control of Congress to the Republicans. It was a historic rout, and it happened because Clinton’s base didn’t show up, while the opposition was fired up. Unemployment was at 5.6%—not terrible, but the perception of economic stagnation fueled voter frustration.

George W. Bush 
This is the one exception to the rule, and it’s worth understanding why. After winning a razor-thin victory in 2000, Bush entered office with Republicans controlling both chambers. In the 2002 midterms, the GOP actually gained eight House seats and two Senate seats, strengthening their hold on Congress. But here’s the kicker: this happened in the aftermath of 9/11, when national unity and Bush’s approval ratings were sky-high. Unemployment was at 5.8%, higher than in 1994, but the unique moment of national crisis overcame the usual midterm complacency. Unless we can find a way to rally our base with equal intensity—and I hope we can without a terror attack on U.S. soil —this exception doesn’t apply to our current fight.

BARACK OBAMA.
In 2008, he swept into office on a wave of hope and change, with Democrats controlling both the House and Senate. But by 2010, the economy was still reeling from the financial crisis—a crisis that, while ignited under George W. Bush, became Obama’s burden to bear. He couldn’t resolve it quickly enough — and he paid the price.

With unemployment at a staggering 9.6%, Obama’s base got equal parts lazy and frustrated, and the result was a “shellacking,” as he called it. Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats, handing the House to the Republicans and narrowing their Senate majority.

It is so important to note, that despite Obama being a very popular figure within his own party — much like Trump is with MAGA — history repeated itself because the president’s voters didn’t show up, while the opposition was out for blood. In the same way Obama paid a price for not getting us out of Bush’s mess fast enough, Trump may pay the price for not getting us out of the inflationary spiral Biden left behind.

DONALD J. TRUMP 1.0
In 2016, he won the presidency, and Republicans held both chambers. But by 2018, the cracks were showing — tons of White House staff turnover and chaos, low approval ratings, and a fired-up Democratic base. The result? Republicans lost 41 House seats, handing full control of the House to Democrats, though they did gain two Senate seats. Unemployment was low at 3.9%, but other economic concerns, like rising healthcare costs and trade tensions, fueled voter unease. Once again, complacency on our side and fury on the other side flipped the script.

JOE BIDEN.
In 2020, he allegedly “won” the White House, and Democrats held both chambers, albeit by slim margins. But in 2022, with inflation raging and unemployment at 3.7%—low, but overshadowed by economic pain from rising prices—Biden’s approval ratings were underwater. Democrats lost nine House seats, giving Republicans a narrow majority, though Democrats managed to gain one Senate seat. It wasn’t a red wave, but it was enough to flip the House because, once again, the president’s base didn’t show up in full force, while the opposition did.

So, let’s tally it up.
Since Bill Clinton, there have been five presidential elections followed by midterms. In four of those five cases, the president’s party lost control of at least one chamber of Congress. The only exception was 2002, under extraordinary circumstances. That’s an 80% failure rate for the president’s party to hold Congress. And in the cases where the economy was a major issue—1994, 2010, 2018, and 2022—the losses were particularly brutal, often exacerbated by economic unease even when unemployment was low — as in 2022.

Now, let’s talk about our current situation.
Thanks to Biden, the economy is fragile. The stock market is in turmoil. Companies like Ford and Intel are warning of slowdowns, laying off thousands. Consumer confidence is at its lowest since COVID, and inflation, while off its peak, is still hovering around 6%—far too high for comfort.  

Although Trump’s diehard supporters wouldn’t care if the stock market crashed to ZERO and unemployment scaled to 20%, the majority of voters are complaining that this administration is not centering its energy on brining down prices and creating new high paying jobs. Even worse, the chaotic and unpredictable messaging from Trump and the White House around tariffs is unnerving. One day Mexico is getting tariffed, the next day they are not. One day it’s going to be reciprocal tariffs on Europe, the day next its 200% tariffs on wine from the EU. It is too hard to settle an economy when it’s playing out on a seesaw.

I’ve said a million times that I love the tariff idea — it can be a powerful tool on numerous fronts — but the messaging and application need to be sharper and more consistent to reassure businesses and voters.

Here’s the bottom line: history shows that complacency kills in midterms, and economic headwinds give the opposition all the ammunition they need to mobilize their base. Right now, if the election was tomorrow, we would get our butts kicked. But we can change the narrative. The Trump administration and the GOP have the tools—policy wins, a bold vision, and a base that’s still hungry for victories—if we can harness them effectively. We need to sharpen our messaging, stabilize the economy, and fire up our voters with more cash in their pockets and better 401(k) balances. History is a harsh teacher, but it’s also a guide. Let’s use it to make sure we’re not learning a lesson the hard way in 2026. Let’s Make America Great Again.

REMINDERS & NOTICES…

1. Dennis Michael Lynch Podcast: Moved to 10am ET. Watch on X, FB, Rumble or TeamDML. Listen on Apple or Spotify.
   

2. 47 Report: In your inbox daily by 7amET. If it’s not, check your spam.
   
   NOTICE:
   Still running a deal on our coffee mugs. Use coupon code LIFE to save 10% and free shipping. Buy one already so I can fund this newsletter and feed my dog. 😄 

Have a great rest of your day.
Your Friend,
DML

_{DISCLAIMERS: This newsletter is for fun purposes only. I am not a doctor or a stock professional, so contact your doctor and financial planner for advice on that kind of stuff. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe button below. Links provided may result in you visiting a website that generates income for TeamDML Inc. My wife thanks you for reading my newsletter, writing it keeps me out of her way. Copyright 2025 TeamDML Inc.}